I hope everyone is off to a great start in the New Year! The market shifted significantly to the buy side of the transaction during 2007 for the first time in a number of years. The number of active listings was at historic highs during much of the year, hovering around 6600 listings. My predictions for 2007 were very close to the actual numbers. The total number of transactions was down 3.3% to 10,058. The average price  of a home in 2007 was up 4 per cent to $186,164, and the median price was up 1.7% to $151,500.
Now my predictions for 2008. The overall theme will be more of the same, with increased inventory and motivated sellers.  Don’t get me wrong, the market is active, and if you are selling at the median price, and your home is priced aggressively, and in good condition, you can still expect to sell below the average number of days on the market.  But in general, be prepared for a second year of slower than normal activity and appreciation. I’m predicting the number of transactions will be down again in 2008 by 1-3% and the median and average prices will remain about the same as 2007. The Upstate economy continues to show strength in the face of a national slow- down, and the big boys (you know who you are) are poised for another very good year. But, as our real estate  market expands demographically and  geographically, the purchaser has more options and more choices. More options and more choices keeps pricing pressure on existing homes.
The upper end of the market did extremely well during the real estate run-up from 2000 to 2005, but there is a large amount of inventory at the top end of the market right now. In addition to increased inventory, there are a number of high end  subdivisions coming on line this year that were in the early stages of development last year. This new high end inventory will be more difficult to sell and the custom builders should be willing to negotiate more than is typical for our market. The inventory at the median price was managed well by the production builders during 2007, so I don’t expect the incentives at the median price to be quite as attractive as they were last year.
Consistent increases in the median price and number of transactions have been characteristic of our market for more than 16 years. Corporate expansion and the associated hiring and relocation of employees have been the most important factors in that pattern. The recent  demographic phenomenon of new residents relocating to our market for a “new lifestyle “ slowed some from 2006 but this is only a temporary reprieve. They will be back, and I think they will be coming to our market in large numbers from all over the country. It will not be your Mom’s Greenville in the future.
The Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown has changed the landscape for obtaining a home mortgage. Rates continue to be at historic lows for A borrowers, but 100% financing with an average credit score is no longer available. I think Chris Roberts at First Palmetto Mortgage describes it best when he says, “The new stated program is called full documentation”. The mortgage market continues to change daily so there is still a great deal of uncertainty about the future. Greenville has the lowest rate of foreclosure among the top 100 markets in the nation so we don’t expect foreclosure inventory to have a significant impact on our local market.
As always, I thank you for the confidence you place in me each time you refer a colleague, friend, or family member to me. Our family wishes your family a wonderful 2008. Mary, Bennett, and Keith